基于ZIP模型和Logistic模型估计的顾客满意度、口碑推荐和新顾客购买决策关系研究|顾客满意度模型

　　摘 要：本文通过问卷调查数据，检验了顾客满意度对口碑推荐进而对新客户购买决策的影响，模型中同时考虑了产品涉入度和情感承诺的调节作用以及顾客交流特征(口碑传播者的专业性、关系强度、感知风险)对新客户购买决策的影响。结果表明：顾客满意度对口碑推荐有显著的正向影响；口碑推荐对新客户购买决策有显著的正向影响；产品涉入度在顾客满意度和口碑推荐的关系中起着显著的正向调节作用，但情感承诺的调节作用不明显；口碑传播者的专业性以及关系强度对新客户购买决策有显著的正向影响，感知风险的影响不显著。同时本文通过计算口碑推荐数量和口碑转换概率从而预测出基于口碑推荐方式获取新顾客数量。
　　关键词：口碑推荐；顾客满意度；新顾客购买决策； ZIP模型；Logistic回归模型
　　中图分类号：F713.50 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003-5192(2012)04-0015-07
　　The Linkage between Customer Satisfaction, Word-of-mouth Referrals and New
　　Customer Purchasing Decision Based on ZIP Model and Logistic Model
　　CAO Li1,2, LI Dan-dan2, LI Chun-qing2
　　(1.Business Management College, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China; 2.School of Economics & Management, Xi’an Technological University, Xi’an 710032, China)
　　Abstract:Based on the questionnaire, the paper analyzes the functional linkage between customer satisfaction, word-of-mouth referrals and new customer purchasing decision, in which product involvement and affective commitment are the moderators of the effects of satisfaction on word-of-mouth referrals and communicator characteristics (sender’s expertise, tie strength and perceived risk) influence new customer purchasing decision. The result shows that, firstly, customer satisfaction are significantly positive correlated with word-of-mouth referrals. Secondly, word-of-mouth referrals have a significantly positive effect on new customer purchasing decisions. Thirdly, product involvement has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between customer satisfaction and word-of-mouth referrals, but affective commitment is not. Finally, sender’s expertise and tie strength have significantly positive effect on new customer purchasing decisions, but the effect of perceived risk is not significant. The paper also predicts the number of new customers acquired based on word-of-mouth referrals by calculating the number and the conversion rate of word-of-mouth referrals.
　　Key words:word-of-mouth referrals; customer satisfaction; new customer purchasing decisions; ZIP model; Logistic model
　　1 引言
　　口碑推荐(Word-of-Mouth Referrals)是促进产品或服务销售的一种营销方式，是关于产品或服务口头的、人际的、非商业性目的的交流活动［1］。越来越多的企业运用口碑推荐这一营销手段来推广自己的产品。从金融服务业到汽车销售业，从餐饮业到旅游业，口碑营销这一方式在企业界变得越来越流行
　　［2,3］。有很多学者研究了口碑推荐对消费者购买行为的影响。通过口碑推荐传递的顾客体验可以降低顾客购买决策的风险和不确定性，从而影响口碑信息接收者的购买决策［4,5］。同时，Reichheld等的研究表明正面口碑可以有效地吸引新客户、增加销售收入［6］。Villanueva等对传统营销沟通投入和口碑推荐对顾客资产的影响进行了研究，发现传统营销投入比口碑推荐可以增加更多的短期顾客价值，但是口碑推荐增加的长期顾客价值却是前者的两倍［7］。以往的研究认为口碑推荐既是服务质量/顾客满意度的结果，又是由于新客户获取而为企业带来收入和利润的前因变量［8］。然而这个效果很难被量化，因此在谈及量化质量/满意度的经济性回报时，口碑传播的效果经常被忽视［9,10］。企业有多少收益是通过口碑推荐从已保持的客户那里得到的是企业实践者所关心的问题，同样也是学术界的研究重点。本文利用顾客对笔记本电脑产品进行口碑推荐的调查问卷数据，检验了顾客满意度对口碑推荐进而对新顾客购买决策影响，同时检验了顾客的产品涉入度和情感承诺对顾客满意度与口碑推荐之间关系的调节作用以及在接收到口碑信息后顾客交流特征(口碑传播者的专业性、关系强度、感知风险)对新顾客购买决策的影响。文中分别运用ZIP模型来验证顾客满意度和口碑推荐之间的假设关系并预测口碑推荐的数量，运用Logistic回归模型验证口碑推荐与新顾客购买决策之间的假设关系并预测口碑推荐转换的概率，从而对基于口碑推荐的新顾客获取数量进行预测。