中国石油储量世界第一_未雨绸缪，沙漠王国展望后石油经济时代

　　沙特阿拉伯以丰富得惊人的石油资源闻名世界，有“石油王国”、“沙漠超级富国”之称。沙特也是世界上“寄生性富裕”模式最典型的国家之一。所谓“寄生性富裕”，指的是这些国家靠出售自然资源获得别国创造的财富。石油是天然资源，也是暴利资源，以沙特为代表的不少中东国家都走着类似的致富道路。
　　既然是“寄生性”，沙特的富裕就有它致命的“硬伤”。石油是沙特的立国之本，致富之源。如果到了石油枯竭，或是人类成功找到替代能源的那一天，沙特将何去何从？
　　庆幸的是，沙特已经感受到了危机，现在已开始发展多元化经济，试图实现从“寄生性富裕”到“非寄生性富裕”的转型了。
　　
　　In Medina, Saudi Arabia, clouds of yellow dust 1)swirled in the air as tractors moved back and forth, leveling a huge, 2)barren piece of land dotted with billboards announcing the city that will rise from the sand here. Over the next few years, Saudi officials say this stretch of desert will be transformed into a buzzing 3)hub of scientific research and development, with 4)cutting-edge universities, hospitals and housing for more than 130,000 people attracted by the idea of living in the city where Islam’s 5)prophet Muhammad is buried.
　　The project, called Knowledge Economic City, represents a first serious step by Saudi Arabia toward building a post-petroleum economy. It is one of six major industrial centers planned to rise over the next 15 years. These cities-6)from-scratch are the most ambitious projects 7)to date launched by a kingdom enriched almost entirely by oil since its 8)disparate regions were unified into a state more than seven decades ago. In beginning to construct an economy to survive the end of its natural resources, the Saudi government is 9)drawing on lessons learned during a previous oil boom when profits were 10)squandered in part by 11)spendthrift princes and short-term planning that emphasized infrastructure over education. “The ruling dynasty is under pressure to show its population that the oil money is being reinvested 12)for the good of the people. The 13)al-Sauds have suffered from the image of the ruling family as corrupt and spending lavishly,” said Rochdi Younsi, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, a consulting firm that provides political risk analysis of countries around the world.
　　With oil prices peaking above $145 a 14)barrel in recent weeks, the kingdom is 15)reaping an 16)unprecedented 17)windfall from its vast 18)reservoirs of oil, which represent a quarter of the world’s proven reserves. Saudi Arabia reported oil income of $200 billion last year and projects $700 billion in revenue over the next two years. The kingdom earned an average of $43 billion annually throughout the 1990s. But Saudi officials have long feared that too-high oil prices would push the world toward alternative fuels, a concern captured by one former oil minister’s tart reminder that “the Stone Age did not end for lack of stone.”
　　To meet rising demand, as well as to slow the world’s rush to develop alternative energy sources, Saudi officials have raised oil production by 500,000 barrels a day since May. Though increased production means the Saudi reserves will be 19)depleted faster, the government is using a burst of additional capital to develop an economy it hopes will eventually be 20)untethered from the price of oil.
　　The new cities are part of a broader effort to diversify the economy away from oil and away from its reliance on the public sector. The cities are intended to develop more of a non-oil economy, well before the oil runs out. Based on economic zones around the world, the cities aim to trade Saudi assets―plentiful and cheap oil and vast open spaces―for foreign 21)expertise and training. Saudi Arabia’s ambitious economic program calls for the kingdom to be among the world’s top 10 economies 22)in terms of ease of doing business by 2010, up from its current rank of 23rd.
本文为全文原貌 未安装PDF浏览器用户请先下载安装 原版全文 　　Saudi officials said they are working on easing the lifestyle and visa restrictions that have kept foreigners from investing and living in the kingdom. One side effect of that will probably be an easing of rules that ban men and women from mingling in public unless they are close relatives.
　　“We’re not anymore an isolated island. We realize the challenge today in order for us to be more competitive means more transparency and more gender equality,” said Abdullah Hameedadin, head of the Economic Cities Agency at the Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority, the government body overseeing the projects.
　　An oil 23)bonanza in the 1970s that poured billions of dollars into government coffers turned the kingdom into a rich nation and helped modernize its infrastructure with eight-lane highways, hospitals, malls, universities and 24)desalination plants. Despite the decades of oil wealth, the Saudi education system is ranked as one of the worst worldwide, tens of thousands of university graduates are unemployed, and the country manufactures and produces very little. Saudi Arabia consumes locally only 2 percent of the oil it produces.
　　Oil accounts for 90 percent of Saudi Arabia’s income. And until oil prices slumped in the 1990s, officials faced little pressure to diver-sify the economy. “This is what some people call ‘the curse of oil.’ You don’t need to train people, you don’t need to work so hard,” said Kinninmont, the economist. Change has come about “partly because of the experience of the ’90s,” she said. “Lots of political and economic problems still haunt the policymakers.”
　　When the six cities are complete, about 2020, they will house nearly 5 million people and provide more than 1 million jobs, planners say. The cities provide regional balance by creating jobs and industries in some of the most underdeveloped regions and cities in the kingdom. One of the cities is expected to become a center for heavy industry, and several Chinese firms have already signed up to start 25)aluminum 26)smelters there, according to Saudi officials.
　　
　　在沙特阿拉伯的麦地那，拖拉机来回开动，卷起漫天飞舞的黄色尘土，把这片广袤贫瘠、户外广告牌随处可见的土地夷平――这一切表明，一座城市将在这片沙地拔地而起。沙特政府官员称，在未来几年内，这片沙漠将变成兴旺的科研开发枢纽中心，顶级学府以及设备完善的医院和楼宇将汇聚此地，吸引超过13万人前来定居，生活在这个伊斯兰教先知穆罕默德安息之地的城市。
　　这个名为“知识经济城市”的计划是沙特阿拉伯迈出的构建后石油经济的关键第一步。这是未来15年中新崛起的六个主要工业中心之一。这些从零建起的城市是迄今为止沙特阿拉伯启动的最具野心的项目。这个七十多年前由不同区域统一而成的国家几乎完全是靠石油致富的。为了构建天然资源枯竭后的后石油时代经济，沙特政府吸取前车之鉴，不重蹈历史覆辙――当年石油资源极其丰富之时，相当一部分财富被挥霍无度的王子们挥洒一空，而且当时国家的短期计划将基建置于教育之上的地位。“当权政府面临压力，他们要向人民表明，石油带来的财富正被重新用于人们的福利方面。沙特统治者的形象已经受到重挫，人们看到的是一个堕落奢侈的统治家族，”对世界各国进行政治风险分析的咨询公司欧亚集团的分析师罗诗迪・尤斯说道。
　　最近几周，世界石油价格已经飚升到每桶超过145美元，石油储量占世界石油探明储量四分之一的沙特阿拉伯着实发了一笔横财。沙特公布去年石油给该国带来的收入为2000亿美元，并估计未来两年石油带来的财政收入可达7000亿美元。上世纪90年代期间，沙特平均每年的收入为430亿美元。然而，沙特政府一直担心，高昂的油价会促使世界寻找开发替代能源，一位前石油部长发表的语气尖酸的言论充分说明了这一点：“石器时代的终结并不用等到石头枯竭的那一天。”
　　为满足日增的需求，同时也为了减缓世界寻求替代能源的步伐，从今年五月开始，沙特政府已经将石油的日产量增加了50万桶。虽然此举意味着沙特的石油储藏量会消耗得更快，但沙特政府正额外拨出大量资金发展最终可摆脱依赖石油价格的新型经济。
　　新兴城市的兴建只是沙特政府为使本国经济实现多元化而采取的系列措施之一，其目的是使沙特经济摆脱对石油以及公共部门的依赖。这些城市诞生的初衷是为了在石油枯竭之前发展非石油经济。这些城市旨在以全球的经济区域为基地，利用沙特的优势――大量廉价的石油及广袤的领土空间――交换外国的先进技术以及培训。在经商环境的吸引力方面，沙特目前世界排名第23，但该国的宏伟经济蓝图定下的目标是要在2010年以前跻身世界前十位。
　　沙特政府称其正在放松对国民生活方式及签证方面的限制。严格的签证要求一直将希望前来该国投资与生活的外国人拒之门外。改变带来一个间接的影响可能就是，目前在公共场合男女严格分离（除非他们是近亲）的规定会得以放松。
　　“我们再不是个孤立的岛屿了，我们意识到当今世界的挑战，为了使我们更具竞争力，我们需要更高的透明度以及更大程度上的男女平等。”经济城市部的总负责人阿卜杜拉・哈米达丁说道。经济城市部隶属于沙特阿拉伯投资总局，而后者为负责监督这一系列工程的政府机构。
　　上世纪70年代，石油蕴藏的意外发现给沙特政府带来源源不尽的巨额收入，该国从此成为世界富国，现代化的基建设施逐一得到完善，包括八车道的高速公路、医院、商场、大学以及脱盐工厂。尽管沙特因石油而致富已有几十年，但沙特的教育系统却一直位列世界榜尾。数以万计的大学毕业生失业，整个国家制造业和生产业相当落后。沙特全国仅消耗其石油产量的2%。
　　石油占沙特阿拉伯收入的九成，直至上世纪90年代油价大跌以前，沙特政府几乎从未面临过实现经济多元化的压力。“这就是一些人所说的‘石油的诅咒’。你不必为国民提供培训，你不必辛勤劳动。”经济学家肯宁蒙特说道。现在形势发生了改变，这“其中部分原因是由于上世纪90年代的经历，”她说，“许多政治和经济方面的问题现在依然困扰着决策者们。”
　　规划师称，等到这六座城市在2020年左右都建好的时候，它们将为近500万居住在这里的人们提供超过100万个就业机会。这些城市将为沙特最不发达的地区和城市创造就业机会，发展各种产业――这将有助于平衡沙特全国各地的经济发展。据沙特官员称，其中一个城市有望成为重工业中心，好几个中国公司已经签署了合同，即将准备在此建立炼铝厂。
　　
　　
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